{"id":718,"date":"2014-12-12T23:26:07","date_gmt":"2014-12-12T22:26:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/?p=718"},"modified":"2014-12-12T23:26:40","modified_gmt":"2014-12-12T22:26:40","slug":"si-te-parashikosh-te-paparashikueshmen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/?p=718","title":{"rendered":"Si t\u00eb parashikosh t\u00eb paparashikueshmen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/parashiko.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-719 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/parashiko-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"parashiko\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/parashiko-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/parashiko.jpg 527w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>T\u00eb parashikosh \u00e7mimin e mallrave, kuicet, gjuajtjet e penalltis\u00eb? \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur, n\u00ebse dihen tendencat e padukshme q\u00eb i karakterizojn\u00eb. Ja se cilat jan\u00eb<\/p>\n<p>A do t\u00eb ngrihet \u00e7mimi i sht\u00ebpive? A do t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohet tregu i pun\u00ebs? Si do t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb vjelja e ardhshme e rrushit? Ekonomia bot\u00ebrore bazohet mbi parashikimet: n\u00eb 2012, kompanit\u00eb kan\u00eb shpenzuar mbi 310 miliard\u00eb euro p\u00ebr parashikime t\u00eb \u00e7do lloji. Por n\u00eb fakt jemi t\u00eb gjith\u00eb n\u00eb biznesin e parashikimeve: t\u00eb parashikosh l\u00ebvizjet e t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb jet\u00ebsore p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar nj\u00eb loj\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur nj\u00eb takim ose nj\u00eb ngritje n\u00eb detyr\u00eb.<br \/>\nMakina m\u00eb efikase p\u00ebr parashikime jan\u00eb softet q\u00eb gjurmojn\u00eb \u00e7do veprim dixhital tonin p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb blejm\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen. Me precizion t\u00eb pazakonsh\u00ebm, si\u00e7 e ka konstatuar klienti i nj\u00eb zinxhiri t\u00eb madh t\u00eb hipermerkatove n\u00eb USA.<\/p>\n<p>LINDJA<br \/>\nKlienti q\u00eb do ta quajm\u00eb Z. Brown, kishte shkuar n\u00eb zyr\u00ebn n\u00eb Mineapolis t\u00eb Target duke i tundur n\u00eb fytyr\u00eb drejtorit email-in q\u00eb i kishte ardhur vajz\u00ebs 17 vje\u00e7are: Plot me reklama t\u00eb produkteve p\u00ebr shtatzani e p\u00ebr bebe. \u201cDoni ta inkurajoni q\u00eb t\u00eb mbetet shtatz\u00ebn\u00eb?!\u201d, u ul\u00ebriti ai.<br \/>\nMe sa duket jo: Gabimi, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjur drejtori, ishte i algoritmeve q\u00eb identifikojn\u00eb potencialet e shtatzanis\u00eb n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesave t\u00eb tyre drejt 25 produkteve, nga sapunet pa parfume tek integrator\u00ebt e kalciumit, m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuara n\u00eb Rrjet. Episodi u konkludua me k\u00ebrkim faljesh t\u00eb drejta. Por pas ca jav\u00ebsh Z. Brown ka ritelefonuar drejtorin e Target: \u201cJam un\u00eb q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj t\u00eb falur: kam folur me vajz\u00ebn time e kam zbuluar q\u00eb do t\u00eb lind\u00eb p\u00ebr 5 muaj\u201d. N\u00eb fusha t\u00eb tjera, parashikimet jan\u00eb akoma mjaft t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira. P\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb politik\u00eb e n\u00eb ekonomi: psikologu Philip Tetlock (Universiteti i Pensilvanis\u00eb, SHBA) ka studiuar parashikimet e 284 ekspert\u00ebve nga 1983 deri n\u00eb 2003, p\u00ebr t\u00eb verifikuar se ndoshta jan\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb. Rezultati: ekspert\u00ebt nuk kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb sesa joekspert\u00ebt. Shkaku? Njeriu nuk ka njohje me parashikimet: ka tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb mos i shikoj\u00eb rregullat ku jan\u00eb dhe e kund\u00ebrta. Ja pse William Poundstone, fizikant n\u00eb USA, ka nd\u00ebrtuar disa rregulla t\u00eb fshehta q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebsh parashikime n\u00eb fusha ku duket e pamundur. I ka treguar n\u00eb librin \u201cHow To Predict the Unpredictable\u201d (Botimet Oneworld).<\/p>\n<p>Blerje t\u00eb Lira<br \/>\nCili \u00ebsht\u00eb momenti m\u00eb i mir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb nj\u00eb televizor plazme ose nj\u00eb brisk elektrik? Shit\u00ebsit ndryshojn\u00eb shpesh \u00e7mimet duke p\u00ebrdorur softe q\u00eb i kalibrojn\u00eb n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs, t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve e t\u00eb kalendarit: p\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb dhjetor \u00e7mimet rriten sepse ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb t\u00eb mallrave, p\u00ebr t\u2019u vendosur posht\u00eb pem\u00ebs s\u00eb Krishtlindjeve.<br \/>\nPrandaj, mund t\u00eb parashikohet sesi do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb \u00e7mimet. P\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb faqen it.camelcamelcamel.com, q\u00eb monitoron \u00e7mimet n\u00eb Amazon, tabela Xbox One ka filluar nga 499\u20ac n\u00eb 22 n\u00ebntorin e 2013-\u00ebs, me 60 l\u00ebkundje e nj\u00eb \u00e7mim mesatar prej 454\u20ac: n\u00ebn fest\u00ebn e ferragosto-s dhe n\u00eb jav\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb shtatorit kushtonte vet\u00ebm 399\u20ac. Duke analizuar HICP (treguesi i \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb harmoni me konsumin) n\u00eb 8 vitet e fundit, mbi shum\u00eb kategori mallrash (aparatesh audio\/video, instrumentash muzikore, librash, bizhuterish) muaji m\u00eb Iip\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb fakt Gushti. P\u00ebr veshjet, mobiljet, e elektrosht\u00ebpiaket shtohet edhe shkurti: \u00ebsht\u00eb vala e gjat\u00eb e shlyerjeve.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00eb blesh Sht\u00ebpi<br \/>\nA ka ndonj\u00eb moment m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb sht\u00ebpi? N\u00eb SHBA, shoq\u00ebria e pasurive t\u00eb patundshme Redfin ka v\u00ebrejtur q\u00eb shpalljet e shitjes t\u00eb sht\u00ebpive t\u00eb publikuara t\u00eb premten shiten si mesatare 99,1% t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar, kurse ato t\u00eb publikuara t\u00eb diel\u00ebn 98,4%. Po n\u00eb Itali? T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Istatit mbi tregun e pasurive t\u00eb patundshme jan\u00eb trimestrale: \u00e7mimet m\u00eb t\u00eb ulta regjistrohen midis tetorit e marsit. Portali immobiliare.it zbulon q\u00eb dita n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn publikohen e lexohen m\u00eb shum\u00eb shpallje t\u00eb shitjes \u00ebsht\u00eb e h\u00ebna (midis 10-\u00ebs e 11-\u00ebs e midis 15-\u00ebs e 16-\u00ebs), kur kthehen n\u00eb pun\u00eb pas fundjav\u00ebs. E muaji me m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura \u00ebsht\u00eb dhjetori.<\/p>\n<p>Fluturimet Ajrore.<br \/>\nCilat poltrona kan\u00eb \u00e7mime q\u00eb variojn\u00eb 1.000% midis m\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshmes e m\u00eb ekonomikes? Ato t\u00eb avion\u00ebve: tarifat e tyre jan\u00eb qeverisur nga algoritme q\u00eb ndjekin n\u00eb koh\u00eb reale vijim\u00ebsin\u00eb e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs e t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs, duke i p\u00ebrshtatur automatikisht tarifat. Por me \u00e7far\u00eb rregullash?<br \/>\nClaudio Piga, ekonomist n\u00eb Universitetin e Keele-s (UK), ka studiuar tarifat e Ryanair: \u201cAlgoritmet k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb secilin t\u00eb shpenzoj\u00eb shifr\u00ebn maksimale q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i gatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar. Prandaj \u00e7mimet kan\u00eb nj\u00eb vijim\u00ebsi n\u00eb form\u00eb \u201cU\u201d-je: Fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta, zbresin e m\u00eb pas rriten: si p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkurajuar blerjet n\u00eb momentin e fundit, edhe sepse udh\u00ebtimet e pun\u00ebs prenotohen zakonisht af\u00ebr nisjes dhe blihen gjithsesi. \u00c7do her\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb bilet\u00eb shitet, tarifa ngrihet n\u00eb mesatare rreth 3%. P\u00ebr t\u00eb ditur si mund t\u00eb rriten tarifat, do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb njihej shkalla e z\u00ebnies s\u00eb vendeve n\u00eb nj\u00eb fluturim: por kompanit\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb kujdesshme\u201d. Dita m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb prenotuar nj\u00eb udh\u00ebtim \u00ebsht\u00eb midis t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebs e t\u00eb mart\u00ebs, kur kompanit\u00eb p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsojn\u00eb \u00e7mimet pasi kan\u00eb par\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb konkurrent\u00ebt. E \u00e7mimet variojn\u00eb edhe sipas destinacioneve. Faqja skyscanner.it ka studiuar biletat e fluturimeve t\u00eb tre viteve t\u00eb fundit: p\u00ebr Spanj\u00ebn e Greqin\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb prenotosh 6 jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb; 7 jav\u00eb p\u00ebr Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar, 14 p\u00ebr Franc\u00ebn, 18 p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00eb evitosh nj\u00eb penallti<br \/>\nE quajn\u00eb (llotaria e penalltive) jo rast\u00ebsisht: portieri duhet t\u00eb gjej\u00eb n\u00eb cilin drejtim kund\u00ebrshtari do t\u00eb gjuaj\u00eb nj\u00eb top nga 11 met\u00ebrshi me shpejt\u00ebsi prej 200km\/h. Topi hyn n\u00eb port\u00eb 1\/5 e sekond\u00ebs pasi \u00ebsht\u00eb gjuajtur: prandaj portieri mund t\u00eb tentoj\u00eb vet\u00ebm t\u00eb gjej\u00eb drejtimin para se t\u00eb gjuaj\u00eb lojtari. Por a jan\u00eb zgjedhjet e portier\u00ebve e t\u00eb futbollist\u00ebve me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb rast\u00ebsishme? Disa psikolog\u00eb t\u00eb Universitetit t\u00eb Amsterdamit kan\u00eb studiuar 204 shkelmime penalltie n\u00eb kampionatet e bot\u00ebs nga 1982-shi deri 2010-\u00ebn, duke zbuluar q\u00eb kur skuadra e portierit \u00ebsht\u00eb duke humbur, ai hidhet nga e djathta (nga e majta e atij q\u00eb gjuan) n\u00eb 71% t\u00eb rasteve. Kur skuadra p\u00ebrkundrazi nuk humbet, zgjedhja djatht\u00eb e majt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb rast\u00ebsore. Prandaj, n\u00ebse skuadra e duhur \u00ebsht\u00eb duke fituar, gjuajt\u00ebsi ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb shanse t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb n\u00ebse t\u00ebrhiqet n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb (nga e majta e portierit).<\/p>\n<p>Plane Telefonike<br \/>\nMe pronar\u00ebt telefonik\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb t\u00eb mar\u00ebsh nj\u00eb thirrje nga nj\u00eb operator q\u00eb k\u00ebrkon n\u00ebse gjith\u00e7ka shkon mir\u00eb: ky \u00ebsht\u00eb momenti p\u00ebr t\u00eb kontraktuar kushte m\u00eb t\u00eb mira. Thirrja, n\u00eb fakt, arrin kur nj\u00eb logarit\u00ebm ka gjetur probabilitetin q\u00eb t\u2019i nd\u00ebrron pronar, p\u00ebr shembull sepse nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri rivale \u00ebsht\u00eb duke hedhur oferta m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb leverdisshme. N\u00ebse p\u00ebrgjigjesh q\u00eb je i k\u00ebnaqur, thirrja mbaron aty. P\u00ebrndryshe, operatori do t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb nj\u00eb skonto ose do t\u00eb nderoj\u00eb me nj\u00eb kontrat\u00eb t\u00eb re. \u201cAsnj\u00ebher\u00eb mos e pranoni!\u201d, paralajm\u00ebron Poundstone. \u201cN\u00ebse e refuzon, t\u00eb japin nj\u00eb ofert\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb: ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mir\u00eb, shifra thjesht \u201cME FAT\u201d.<br \/>\nE n\u00ebse e refuzon edhe t\u00eb dyt\u00ebn, mund t\u00eb pritet ndonj\u00eb dit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb thirrur e p\u00ebr t\u00eb anuluar sh\u00ebrbimin (edhe po t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb bllof): ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb kompanit\u00eb mund t\u00eb propozojn\u00eb oferta akoma edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb mira\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>BILANCE T\u00cb MANIPULUARA.<br \/>\nFizikanti Frank Benford punonte p\u00ebr General Electric n\u00eb Schenectady (SHBA) n\u00eb vitet \u201920. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, llogaritjet b\u00ebheshin duke u konsultuar me nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr logaritmesh. Benford vuri re q\u00eb faqet e para t\u00eb librit (ato me shifra m\u00eb t\u00eb ulta) ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorura n\u00eb krahasim me ato t\u00eb fundit, q\u00eb ishin pothuajse t\u00eb reja. Ndoshta ishte nj\u00eb rast\u00ebsi, por ai ka studiuar pik\u00ebt e tenisit, kuot\u00ebn e Burs\u00ebs, popullsin\u00eb\u2026 T\u00eb gjith\u00eb tregonin t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin fenomen: N\u00eb sasit\u00eb q\u00eb rriten n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb eksponenciale \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb filloj\u00eb me shifrat 1 (30,1% n\u00eb vend t\u00eb 11,1%), 2 (17,6%), 3 (12,5%). Fenomeni ia vlen edhe p\u00ebr shifr\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb: mbizot\u00ebron 0 (12% n\u00eb vend t\u00eb 10%) e 1 (11,4%). \u00cbsht\u00eb ligji i Benford-it. Prandaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb verifikuar n\u00ebse nj\u00eb bilanc ose nj\u00eb sh\u00ebnim shpenzimesh jan\u00eb t\u00eb manipuluara, mjafton t\u00eb verifikosh frekuenc\u00ebn e shifrave t\u00eb dyta e t\u2019i krahasosh me vlerat e Benfordit.<br \/>\nN\u00ebse ka nj\u00eb tregues q\u00eb prek nj\u00eb shif\u00ebr rrumbullake (m\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00ebse p\u00ebr investitor\u00ebt n\u00eb kuotimet e burs\u00ebs, ose n\u00eb bilancet e korporat\u00ebs), manipuluesit prodhojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb 0 sesa 9 si shifra t\u00eb dyta. N\u00ebse n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj ka nj\u00eb tregues q\u00eb bie n\u00ebn nj\u00eb shif\u00ebr t\u00eb caktuar (sh\u00ebnimet e shpenzimeve, kllapat e deklarimit t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave), manipuluesit do t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb 9 sesa 0 si shifra t\u00eb dyta. Por kujdes: vlerat e ndryshme t\u00eb ligjit t\u00eb Benfordit nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb vetvete prova t\u00eb manipulimeve (ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb frut i koin\u00e7idenc\u00ebs): jan\u00eb megjithat\u00eb nj\u00eb kamban\u00eb alarmi, p\u00ebr t\u2019u thelluar me analiza m\u00eb t\u00eb detajuara. \/LeScienze\/<br \/>\nSHQIPERUAR NGA www.bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00eb parashikosh \u00e7mimin e mallrave, kuicet, gjuajtjet e penalltis\u00eb? \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur, n\u00ebse dihen tendencat e padukshme q\u00eb i karakterizojn\u00eb. Ja se cilat jan\u00eb A do t\u00eb ngrihet \u00e7mimi i sht\u00ebpive? A do t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohet tregu i pun\u00ebs? Si do t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb vjelja e ardhshme e rrushit? Ekonomia bot\u00ebrore bazohet mbi parashikimet: n\u00eb 2012, kompanit\u00eb [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sociale"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":720,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718\/revisions\/720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ulqini-online.com\/sajti\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}